Election Scenarios

Here's a primary election scenario roundup that I'm putting out mostly because I have nothing else to do on a Saturday afternoon.



Huckabee wins but by a smaller margin than expected. Romney comes in second and declares "victory" by putting in a good showing. Rudy comes in a more distant third and also declares victory with his showing. McCain, Thompson, and Ron Paul move on to New Hampshire. The others drop out.

New Hampshire

Romney wins but not in a landslide. McCain comes in second and declares victory, stating that he will win in South Carolina and as such is a viable candidate for the nomination. Rudy comes in third and says his "late state" strategy is on track. Huckabee comes in fourth and says that South Carolina will prove his viability. Thompson comes in fifth and renews his intention to "fight on in the South". Ron Paul comes in six and begins seriously considering a third party candidacy.

South Carolina

Romney wins a squeaker of a victory over Thompson and McCain. Huckabee comes in fourth and the "Huckaboom" is declared over. Rudy comes in fifth and his candidacy is in peril, though he continues to garner attention, as his late state strategy has yet to be tested. Ron Paul comes in sixth and is expected to announce a third party run.


Romney wins and declares that he is the "front runner". Rudy comes in second, breathing some life back into his candidacy. McCain scores a third and seriously begins to consider dropping out. Thompson comes in fourth and does drop out. Huckabee comes in last and also drops out. Ron Paul declares a third party run.


Mitt Romney wins and by doing so, secures the nomination. Rudy comes in a distant second and virtually everyone says his candidacy is over. He vows to fight on, but everyone knows that even if he wins California he's not going to win Texas, so the rest of the campaign is just a formality. McCain graciously ends his bid for the presidency.

And now for the Democrats...


Obama wins by five points and declares a new era of American politics. John Edwards comes in second and declares "victory" and claims "comeback kid" status. Hillary comes in third, saying that she never thought she'd win Iowa, but it is reported that upon hearing the results, she threw a chair at her campaign manager (a pregnant woman). Richardson comes in fourth and starts talking about an "all minority" Democrat ticket. Biden, Dodd and the others claim they are sticking it out until New Hampshire, but everyone knows they are just doing it so their post career book jackets will have better blurbs.

New Hampshire

Obama wins a squeaker over Clinton and declares that he is the front runner. Oprah makes a surprise appearance in Manchester to thank the "women of New Hampshire". Five thousand estrogen fueled, menopause suffering, middle aged white women storm the stage, crushing seven burly security guards. (The New York Times declares that "even gun toting troglodytes can't slow the 'throng' of overjoyed Obama supporters". ) Hillary makes no post election appearance due to "ill health" but Bill makes a forty minute speech primarily about himself, mentioning Hillary's name just once. Edwards comes in third and declares it a "victory for America's poor." Richardson comes in a distant fourth and is seen chasing the Obama campaign bus down a darkened, snow covered street near Portsmouth at two in the morning. Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel (am I missing anyone?) start meting out endorsements, which no one cares about.

South Carolina

Obama wins again, pretty much sealing his nomination. During his acceptance speech he takes on a noticeable "down home" Southern accent which is parodied on "Hannity and Colmes" for the next week. John Edwards comes in second, and again declares victory. When asked how he can have so many victories and still not have won a primary, he accuses the questioning journalist of being for the "tired old politics" of the Republican hate machine. His wife then takes the journalist behind the blinds and pistol whips the fellow. Hillary again does not appear on election night, and rumors of her being seen in a "rather substantial white coat" are rampant ont he campaign trail until, two hours later the police light appears on the Drudge Report over the screaming headline that Hillary has been "flown to Switzerland" for "emergency medical care".

Florida, Michigan, Texas, California...

Obama wins them all. Edwards wins Nevada (again), but no one notices. The New York Times declares that the Obama candidacy represents "an end to history", and the healing of all racial tensions in the world. As the Democrat elections are over almost as soon as they began (and the Republicans continue on a bit longer), the mainstream media post campaign analysis centers mostly on the Clinton implosion. The conventional wisdom is that America is populated by male chauvinist bigots who weren't thoughtful enough to appreciate the greatness of a Hillary candidacy. (Never is it explained why such people choose to be Democrats.) Meanwhile, Hillary is said to be recovering nicely at a "facility" "overseas". Fox News' Greta van Sustren sets up a 24 hour vigil in front of the "hospital" but the only artifact she is able to garner is a hand made pot holder that Hillary is said to have sewn during her recovery . Bill, finally free to live life as a single man, begins to be seen publicly with a variety of starlets and MSNBC newsreaders. He finally settles on the weather girl from CNN's morning show, and buys a replacement dog for Buddy, which he names Excelsior.

Next time... the General Election.



9:14 PM

It's about time. There's the Jake we've been waiting for, going on months now...


11:09 AM

Impressive. But let me get this straight. Were you in Charleston when you wrote that? Temps in the 70s, women in their summer dresses strolling down Meeting Street. And you're inside working on a 2,000 word PPP ( political prediction post )

Say it ain't so, Jake. Maybe you typed it on your laptop as you sipped a mint julip at an outdoor cafe with a view of that new bridge.

Re the PPP. You just may be right about Rudy. His expectations are so low for every contest outside of Florida - any fair showing will be framed as success. But if he comes in 2nd in the Sunshine State, after fair to poor showings before that?

Bye bye Rudy


12:54 PM

Ya, Terry #2... was in Charleston. But it was raining yesterday, so I have an excuse for sitting on my butt and writing silly scenarios. Today, is gorgeous. Maybe I'll send pictures. Have some work to do, but I ought to get out for a couple of hours to enjoy the day. Hope you guys are making snow angels today. Looks like a classic nor'easter.


6:01 PM

Slush angels is more like it. Miserable weather, but we're not whining. We'll be in the Low Country in three weeks. Hanging out in Murrell's Inlet, my eyes peeled for the ghost of Mickey Spillane. She crab soup on the menu, if we're lucky.